swivel
02-20-2006, 07:39 AM
It may be that the console wars just took a MAJOR turn in Microsoft's favor. The shortage in XBox's has finally been explained to have been due to a supplier of GDDR3 RAM. This is being solved as other suppliers are being contracted in. The new plant has been up and running for a few weeks. All of this is the reason that Moore has been promising an end to the shortages. But this is only half of the reason that the XBox is about to really take off...
The rumor mill is saying that the PS3 will cost Sony over $800 to make, and that it might not be out in the U.S. until 2007. Whether or not any of this is true might have little impact on its effects. It is mostly talking-head analyst hand-waving. However, if it isn't countered by Sony soon, the damage will be real. In another thread I said that Sony's silence was warranted because it would be wasted hype since there was no competitor actually on the shelf. That was true then, but in light of these new rumors, it is no longer the case.
Recently another trade show came and went with Sony devoting a lot of space to a PS3 that was unplayable. The silence game will work for another two weeks, and that is it. After that, the XBox 2 could be on shelves, and next-gen gamers will have to ask themselves if they want to wait a full year to get into the next generation of gaming. Each new game that is released, like Fight Night 3, that comes out on the last gen and the new gen will test the resolve of anyone wanting to wait this out. It will get tiring buying games in an inferior version for an entire year.
I think the people sitting on the fence are now leaning towards Microsoft. Here is a system that is available NOW. Experts are already saying that the two systems are within a few percentage points of being equally powerful. LIVE is everything it was hyped to be. And Sony is not combatting pretty harsh rumors.
Other thoughts:
Once again we see how difficult it is to release a new console. Every fanboy in the world thought that Microsoft and Sony, just because they have experience and money, would have these amazing launches. So far, it has been anything but smooth for either company. If either one of them had been on their game, I think they could have crushed the other. As it stands... it may be a wash. Which means:
Nintendo could be the real winner here. There are a TON of "if's", but Sony and Microsoft have done their part. Already Nintendo is making more money on their investment than Sony or Microsoft, mainly due to the huge popularity of the GBA and the DS. There is more fervor in Japan right now over the upcoming DS Lite than there is for any Next-Gen console! Why has the DS done so well? The games are fun. Period. If they can do the same thing on the Revolution, and it costs $200 - $300, and they can pull in the female gamers the way Nintendogs has, then we will have an upset winner. Everyone says that the Revolution will fail because developers will not code for a machine that has a proprietary controller, when they can release to the XBox and PS3 at the same time. That formula will not hold if Nintendo sells 100M Revolutions. Then it will be very cost-effective to make games for it. Go to your local Best Buy and look down the PSP aisle, and compare that to the GBA, DS aisle. Market penetration is more important than controller design. Especially if it is enough to compesate for developing for two screens and touch input!
I keep forgetting that Nintendo even exists in the ongoing war. But when I am smacked over the head with reminders, I keep thinking that this underdog has a chance.
The rumor mill is saying that the PS3 will cost Sony over $800 to make, and that it might not be out in the U.S. until 2007. Whether or not any of this is true might have little impact on its effects. It is mostly talking-head analyst hand-waving. However, if it isn't countered by Sony soon, the damage will be real. In another thread I said that Sony's silence was warranted because it would be wasted hype since there was no competitor actually on the shelf. That was true then, but in light of these new rumors, it is no longer the case.
Recently another trade show came and went with Sony devoting a lot of space to a PS3 that was unplayable. The silence game will work for another two weeks, and that is it. After that, the XBox 2 could be on shelves, and next-gen gamers will have to ask themselves if they want to wait a full year to get into the next generation of gaming. Each new game that is released, like Fight Night 3, that comes out on the last gen and the new gen will test the resolve of anyone wanting to wait this out. It will get tiring buying games in an inferior version for an entire year.
I think the people sitting on the fence are now leaning towards Microsoft. Here is a system that is available NOW. Experts are already saying that the two systems are within a few percentage points of being equally powerful. LIVE is everything it was hyped to be. And Sony is not combatting pretty harsh rumors.
Other thoughts:
Once again we see how difficult it is to release a new console. Every fanboy in the world thought that Microsoft and Sony, just because they have experience and money, would have these amazing launches. So far, it has been anything but smooth for either company. If either one of them had been on their game, I think they could have crushed the other. As it stands... it may be a wash. Which means:
Nintendo could be the real winner here. There are a TON of "if's", but Sony and Microsoft have done their part. Already Nintendo is making more money on their investment than Sony or Microsoft, mainly due to the huge popularity of the GBA and the DS. There is more fervor in Japan right now over the upcoming DS Lite than there is for any Next-Gen console! Why has the DS done so well? The games are fun. Period. If they can do the same thing on the Revolution, and it costs $200 - $300, and they can pull in the female gamers the way Nintendogs has, then we will have an upset winner. Everyone says that the Revolution will fail because developers will not code for a machine that has a proprietary controller, when they can release to the XBox and PS3 at the same time. That formula will not hold if Nintendo sells 100M Revolutions. Then it will be very cost-effective to make games for it. Go to your local Best Buy and look down the PSP aisle, and compare that to the GBA, DS aisle. Market penetration is more important than controller design. Especially if it is enough to compesate for developing for two screens and touch input!
I keep forgetting that Nintendo even exists in the ongoing war. But when I am smacked over the head with reminders, I keep thinking that this underdog has a chance.