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swivel
02-20-2006, 07:39 AM
It may be that the console wars just took a MAJOR turn in Microsoft's favor. The shortage in XBox's has finally been explained to have been due to a supplier of GDDR3 RAM. This is being solved as other suppliers are being contracted in. The new plant has been up and running for a few weeks. All of this is the reason that Moore has been promising an end to the shortages. But this is only half of the reason that the XBox is about to really take off...

The rumor mill is saying that the PS3 will cost Sony over $800 to make, and that it might not be out in the U.S. until 2007. Whether or not any of this is true might have little impact on its effects. It is mostly talking-head analyst hand-waving. However, if it isn't countered by Sony soon, the damage will be real. In another thread I said that Sony's silence was warranted because it would be wasted hype since there was no competitor actually on the shelf. That was true then, but in light of these new rumors, it is no longer the case.

Recently another trade show came and went with Sony devoting a lot of space to a PS3 that was unplayable. The silence game will work for another two weeks, and that is it. After that, the XBox 2 could be on shelves, and next-gen gamers will have to ask themselves if they want to wait a full year to get into the next generation of gaming. Each new game that is released, like Fight Night 3, that comes out on the last gen and the new gen will test the resolve of anyone wanting to wait this out. It will get tiring buying games in an inferior version for an entire year.

I think the people sitting on the fence are now leaning towards Microsoft. Here is a system that is available NOW. Experts are already saying that the two systems are within a few percentage points of being equally powerful. LIVE is everything it was hyped to be. And Sony is not combatting pretty harsh rumors.

Other thoughts:

Once again we see how difficult it is to release a new console. Every fanboy in the world thought that Microsoft and Sony, just because they have experience and money, would have these amazing launches. So far, it has been anything but smooth for either company. If either one of them had been on their game, I think they could have crushed the other. As it stands... it may be a wash. Which means:

Nintendo could be the real winner here. There are a TON of "if's", but Sony and Microsoft have done their part. Already Nintendo is making more money on their investment than Sony or Microsoft, mainly due to the huge popularity of the GBA and the DS. There is more fervor in Japan right now over the upcoming DS Lite than there is for any Next-Gen console! Why has the DS done so well? The games are fun. Period. If they can do the same thing on the Revolution, and it costs $200 - $300, and they can pull in the female gamers the way Nintendogs has, then we will have an upset winner. Everyone says that the Revolution will fail because developers will not code for a machine that has a proprietary controller, when they can release to the XBox and PS3 at the same time. That formula will not hold if Nintendo sells 100M Revolutions. Then it will be very cost-effective to make games for it. Go to your local Best Buy and look down the PSP aisle, and compare that to the GBA, DS aisle. Market penetration is more important than controller design. Especially if it is enough to compesate for developing for two screens and touch input!

I keep forgetting that Nintendo even exists in the ongoing war. But when I am smacked over the head with reminders, I keep thinking that this underdog has a chance.

Codefox
02-20-2006, 08:29 AM
Good points all around. As a Game Cube owner from the last gen, I know full well that the quality of Big N's games is there. And they have a great business model that allows them to make money in a market where they are clearly not the leader anymore. However, that won't change because MS or Sony stumbled out of the gate. Sony has the toughest fight here because I believe their console is going to ahve to sell for at least $500 or $600 to keep them from losing too much money. I don't think even Sony can give up that much money on console losses. They're already in trouble in their entertainment division...a $200+ mil loss on hardware is a tough hit.

Microsoft can afford to lose a little bit more because XBL is getting over 50% of their purchases and I believe most people who buy a 360 want that service. (Its awesome!)

Big N will be able to establish themselves but the weird controller & (most importantly) lack of HD support is the deal breaker for me.

vman
02-20-2006, 09:16 AM
Well personally, i think all 3 consoles will have an equal chance of winning the war. 360 for its veratility, PS3 for its popularity, and Revolution for its cute appeal.

Codefox
02-20-2006, 09:38 AM
Revolution for its cute appeal.

That hasn't helped Nintendo with the 64 or the Game Cube. It won't help it win here. But win is really relative. If Nintendo continues to be profitable that's a win for them. I think they sell 20 million consoles at least. I really think MS has a really good shot this time around though as far as the numbers game goes..

swivel
02-20-2006, 10:16 AM
That hasn't helped Nintendo with the 64 or the Game Cube. It won't help it win here. But win is really relative. If Nintendo continues to be profitable that's a win for them. I think they sell 20 million consoles at least. I really think MS has a really good shot this time around though as far as the numbers game goes..

In the numbers game do you include the handhelds? I'm not sure if I do yet or not, but with recent speculation that Microsoft may be looking at the handheld market, I may have to. It would be crazy to see MS release a handheld, putting all three companies in both the home and portable entertainment biz.

As far as the technical abilities of the Revolution and the funky controller.... the same things were said of the DS compared to the PSP when they came out. All of my TV's are HD, so that is a big positive/negative for me as well. The big issue for me will be whether or not my girlfriend will play games on it. The only games I've had her hooked on so far have been Animal Crossing and DDR-type games.

Codefox
02-20-2006, 10:43 AM
No, I don't. That's seperate from the console war. I mean, there's really still no battle there yet. That's Big-N's domain still.

But if you notice, I didn't bring up any of the technical specs other than HD capability. I was very satisfied with the Cube's performance last gen. I didn't see any real difference between it and my friend's XBox. But I have a nice 51" HD TV and there's no way I want to play games without HD anymore. Especially now that I've seen my XBox in action.

XBox has DDR on its game list and the XBox arcade definately is a huge bonus for casual gamers. I think the 360 just might hit a sweet spot as far as what groups of players it entices in.

And as for the Revolution's controller, it probably will work well knowing Nintendo. But the 360 controller is seriously the best I've put in my hands. Up until now the Sega Genesis controller had always been my favorite. But the 360 controller is just REALLY well designed.

swivel
02-20-2006, 12:33 PM
You know, Sony is losing money in most of their divisions. The last I looked, the Playstation franchise was keeping them afloat. Wouldn't it be crazy to see them botch the PS3 launch. Like to the point of saying, "We tried to do too much, and are unable to meet those requirements, so we are delaying for another year". Next thing we know, the Sony empire is going under?

It is such a long stretch that it might as well be impossible, but every empire crumbles eventually. Or has to change so much that it isn't even the same empire anymore. If Sony went under, I think Sega would start developing another console for the next launch cycle. Now THAT has some slim odds...

Codefox
02-20-2006, 02:27 PM
I can't see any situation that would cause Sega to get back into hardware ;) Sony won't go under though. Their entertainment division could but not the whole thing. I have a Sony TV...its beautiful. They're great with electronics. Lately they've seemingly done everything they possibly can to fail in everythign they do though.

odpr
02-20-2006, 03:15 PM
Sony is missing for sure, if what the analyst say true then it will take them more then a year to be in a place that the system is all over the world with normal games, Xbox by then will pass it in such way that they won't be able to match.
More then that, if Microsoft, will do some math thingy, they can reduce the price of the Box and eliminate the Ps .

About the Nintendo, this swill sound weird to you, but I think this is going to be the most interesting Console on the market, for the first time someone is really trying to produce a new console that really invent the wheel, and not just putting a good Gf and sound, I am sure that the revolution iwill have a really good gfx, maybe not amazing like Ps, but still very well and a new controller, and new games, not another Racing game or FPS. Which currently dominate the video game world, and I have to tell you I am sick of themalreayd..

odpr
02-20-2006, 03:26 PM
I just thought that maybe sony, does have a system ready for presentation, but they afraid that after they show the REAL ability of the system, people will understadn that it;s equal to the Xbox and will not wait for the PS anymore..

swivel
02-20-2006, 04:53 PM
I just thought that maybe sony, does have a system ready for presentation, but they afraid that after they show the REAL ability of the system, people will understadn that it;s equal to the Xbox and will not wait for the PS anymore..

That's a great point. It might be too late for them to undo the impression that the two systems are equally powerful, though. A ton of developers have said that the two are rougly equal. Most say that the Sony is slightly more powerful in theory, but too difficult to code for to wring every last ounce of power out of it.

Regarding your previous post, I do not think the time on market will mean that XBox games are always a year ahead of PS3 games. On the contrary, I think the PS3 games will be roughly equal from the start, and the reason is simple: Most games will be released to both platforms. All of the art, the textures, the sound, the 3D models, the CGI, the cutscenes, the text... it all moves from one system to the other with ease. The only thing you have to do is recompile the code for a different instruction set, and handle the threads for each system. From what I hear, with the dev tools available from MS and Sony, making cross-platform games will be even easier this generation than the last one. So let's pretend that Madden '07 comes out when the PS3 is released. They will have the same graphics, the same AI, the same menus, the same voice, and now that MS has moved the White/Black to R1, L1, they will have the same controls. The extra time that EA spends developing the game for one system will pay off for both.

This means that the PS3 will get second-gen games for its first-gen. Of course, this only applies to multi-platform games, but that is most of the high-profile games nowadays. The games that aren't will suck no matter what, just like the crappy games that all systems have at every stage of their existence.

vman
02-21-2006, 01:10 AM
You know, Sony is losing money in most of their divisions. The last I looked, the Playstation franchise was keeping them afloat. Wouldn't it be crazy to see them botch the PS3 launch. Like to the point of saying, "We tried to do too much, and are unable to meet those requirements, so we are delaying for another year". Next thing we know, the Sony empire is going under?

It is such a long stretch that it might as well be impossible, but every empire crumbles eventually. Or has to change so much that it isn't even the same empire anymore. If Sony went under, I think Sega would start developing another console for the next launch cycle. Now THAT has some slim odds...
that is a real remote possibility. the only company that has a chance of falling out of the console business is Nintendo. and I dont even think that has a good chance of happening either. Playstation has too many loyal and blind fanboys that will buy anything with Playstation written on the box.