HD-DVD in the 360 in 2006

[swivel]

You're right about having to sell to the masses, but it's also best not to underestimate the importance of us technophiles.

I can say that I personally make at the very least, 20-30 laptop/computer product recommendations in a year, a nearly equal number involving anything from TVs, Mp3 players and digital cameras, and probably 5-10 consoles...and I don't work for a retailer. Naturally, having me in favour of a certain brand is more valuable to that brand than a single average user, who may share his/her opinion on that product or brand, but rarely becoming a deciding factor for people.

Thankfully for those who come to me for advice, I consider myself to be far less biased than most, and like to actually research products I recommend, rather than blindly promoting on name alone.

Anyway, my point is...if I adobt HD-DVD over Blu-ray, or vice-verse, I've done so because I'm willing to put my money behind the format. So, unless something changes drastically after that, I'm also going to put forth the same recommendation to others. This can add up to a very substantial proportion of the market through a trickle down effect from the earliest adopters to the average user.

This time around though, I see myself owning an HD-DVD drive when they come, but I doubt they'll get it to the point where I'd recommend it for the average user.

I seriously doubt you will have to make an either/or choice. Everyone points to the Betamax/VHS format war for precedent. I have a different view. I look to the DVD+ DVD- format war. Look what happened there... everyone thought one format had to 'win'. Instead, hardware manufacturers found it far simpler to make drives that supported all formats. Problem solved.

From what I'm hearing already, with HP jumping to HD-DVD as well as Blu-Ray, and drives already in development that support both formats... my guess is that you will be able to get a drive for your PC that does both for less than $200 within a year. Sure, the first drives are going to be over $1,000 (for home AV enthusiasts), but optical drive prices plummet.

The two will live hand-in-hand, even though I still don't think they will get widespread adoption. You'll have to buy Spiderman in Blu-Ray and LOTR in HD-DVD. But you won't really notice the difference. The crappy thing will be seeing these discs sell for $35 dollars or so. That is going to really hamper adoption. Hopefully it will drive regular DVD prices down.


I do not discount the "Maven Factor" that you mention. I do the same thing for my family and friends. They call before any TV, PC, or gadget purchase. And, like you, I do my research and have no bias. My current PC is an AMD / Nvidia rig, my last one was Intel / ATI. All I care about is who has the best product. If you like to read, go get a copy of "Tipping Point" by Malcolm Caldwell. He has a lot to say about Mavens and how they influence product adoption. So know that I make my dire predictions with full knowledge of this effect.

My guess is that you will be as honest as I am. You will enjoy the added tech, and spend the extra money... but you will find it as hard as I will to suggest to friends and family that they really need to spend the extra dough for an increase in lines of resolution. We will tell them that they are better off spending that money upgrading their speakers, where they will get more bang for their buck. Or getting an up-converting DVD player for $100 instead.

All of this is my educated opinion, of course. I look just as forward to being proven wrong as right.


Oh... and off topic... have you been watching the upcoming release of a JVC receiver that has 3 HDMI inputs, and upconverts to HDMI from all other inputs? The thing is going to rule, and might make your cable runs a thing of the past. One HDMI cable to your projector is all you would need.

I've got a ton of devices spitting out HDMI to a switch right now that just can't wait for this receiver.

[ShadedNine]

Personally, I don't intend to invest any money towards moving into HDMI until the release of the 2.0 standard, assuming that fixes the current problems with getting these devices to speak to one another. Moving to a digital amp though, is definitely an intention of mine for the near future. But I'm looking towards the Panasonic.

I've seen far too many issues with HDMI, particularily when they involve switching. I'll probably stick primarily to analog outputs, which can still deliver top notch quality, until I'm forced into going digital by HDCP.

As for combo HDDVD + Blu-ray drives...the technologies are separated further physically than DVD + - ever was. Combo drives are likely a posibility, but they probably won't reach an affordable level anywhere near as fast as DVD. Not fast enough for my first one to be a combo at least. Thankfully, most studios, except perhaps for Sony, will be offering movies in both formats anyway.

[PeteZombie]

heres the link http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/x...60hddvdplayer/
you can pre order @ ebgames. even afess military exchange has it listed for release 11-07-2006