Year 2009: Xbox 360 in distant 3rd in console race!

[mattgame]

Well according these folks it will be.....,


Xbox 360 Could be 'Distant Third' By 2009
DFC predicts the game industry as a whole could generate $47 billion that year.
by Ryan Geddes
September 18, 2007 - According to a series of recent reports by the research group DFC Intelligence, the game industry is poised to see enormous overall growth in 2009, just in time for the Xbox 360 to slip to a distant third place in the console race.

DFC estimates that the videogame market will swell to $47 billion by 2009, a 42 percent increase over the $33 billion generated by the industry in 2006. That forecast includes revenue from videogame hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software (i.e. the DS and PSP - not mobile phones), PC games, and online PC and console games.

But the Xbox 360's selling power could be on the wane, according to DFC's research. The company has raised its forecast for the Nintendo Wii and PlayStation 3 and lowered its forecast for Microsoft's console, predicting that the Wii will stay on top at least through 2008 and that the PS3 will move into overdrive in 2009.

"The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," said DFC analyst David Cole. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue."

Using three separate market forecasting models, DFC estimates that combined cumulative worldwide sales for the three console systems will reach between 180 million to 210 million units by 2012.

But home consoles won't be the only winners, according to DFC. The PC market, spurred by the success of online games and digital distribution, stands to grow to $13 billion by 2012, the research indicates. Previous DFC estimates put the online PC game market at about $4.5 billion in 2006.

Handheld systems and software are also strong performers and Cole predicts that "the Nintendo DS could eventually become the best-selling game system ever in five years."

[l Maximus l]

Unless Sony and Nintendo come out with an on-line network like XBox Live, I don't see them going anywhere with consoles. Handhelds, yes, but, consoles, no. On-line is the future, IMO.

[FatBox]

Halo 3 = 360 in first FOREVAR!

[mattgame]

I mean what does this guy know. What games are going to push PS3 and the Wii over the top? The Wii's novelty will wear off soon and the gamer will rule. The gamers love the Xbox, the PS2 fanboys are trying to dig the PS3 but they're missing out ton stellar online play. Prediction: Xbox 360 in a landslide.

[ChessPieceFace]

I read that article somewhere else and the date said 2012. Weird. But anyways a new Xbox will be out in like 2-3 years.

[mattgame]

I read that article somewhere else and the date said 2012. Weird. But anyways a new Xbox will be out in like 2-3 years.


It better not come out in 2 or 3 years! It better be more like 5 years.

[CrazyCougar]

I think without a doubt the PS3 will pick up steam. But the 360 will remain popular in North America throughout its lifecycle. Will it be third on the list? Oh without a doubt. But it will probably be first on the list in North America and second or close to first in Europe. In Japan, well they may as well forget it.

Is the 360 going away anytime soon? Nope.

[Variation-XBA]

While people are making predictions here is mine:

Dreamcast 2 to make a comeback by 2010 and Sega wins the next next-gen console war!

Well, I can wish...


It better not come out in 2 or 3 years! It better be more like 5 years.

Consoles have always had about a 5-6 year run before the new iterations come out.

[.:LRG:.VinTaGe]

you will have to wait and see what comes out for ps3...but how things looknow..it will be very hard for them to overtake the 360

[laughs]

This guy is a joke! PS3 is all but dead. Sony = farts! 360 = yay!!! Anyway, Ryan Geddes can blow me. :cheers:

[BROOKLYNSBATMAN]

i like to know .... if either company could sell over 1 milliion copys of a single game franchise on its release date.... just name one... and if u say super mario wrong!!! NAME ONE PLAYSTATION NAME ONE WII... as maximus said (ONLINE IS THE FUTURE)

[Ainokeatoo]

I honestly doubt this guys research, PS3 had a ****ty start, not only could they not launch with 360 but they delay the launch of a highly sought after game, their launch was horrible, and their online isn't as awesome as xbox live, as for the wii, the only thing that really improved and will probably die after a while, is the whole nunchuck thing >.>... The 360 will never be in third, maybe second, but never third.

[predatorprime]

As a proud Wii60 owner I really doubt that the PS3 will catch up to either system.
My little brother has a nice big screen with a PS3 and HDMI hook up and he still plays his 360 more...
Researchers always seem to favor Sony regardless of facts/reality, its sad really.
Personally I say the 360 finishes 2nd, just because the Wii appeals to far to large of an audience and sells for too cheap for anyone to catch it, and thats regardless of the technical short comings. People need to remember that the people buying the Wii are the same people that bought the DS over the technically superior PSP.

[mattgame]

We have to look at sales after Halo 3 launch. Then we'll see how much the 360 will sell and if it can compete with the Wii.

[predatorprime]

We have to look at sales after Halo 3 launch. Then we'll see how much the 360 will sell and if it can compete with the Wii.

I'm pretty sure it can, but you also haven't seen what happens when the 2 "big" franchise players come out for the Wii.
As a note I'm a huge fan of Zelda and Metroid, but simply put neither of them is Mario or Smash Bros... those 2 are the flag carriers for the Wii. If they fail so does the Wii.
Its the same type of thing with Halo on the 360, if it would have bombed it would have destroyed the 360 base

[FatBox]

I'm pretty sure it can, but you also haven't seen what happens when the 2 "big" franchise players come out for the Wii.
As a note I'm a huge fan of Zelda and Metroid, but simply put neither of them is Mario or Smash Bros... those 2 are the flag carriers for the Wii. If they fail so does the Wii.
Its the same type of thing with Halo on the 360, if it would have bombed it would have destroyed the 360 base

I can promise you neither of those games will ever be as big as Halo. Halo 3 broke the record for pre-orders with like 3.5 million or something.

[Ainokeatoo]

I can promise you neither of those games will ever be as big as Halo. Halo 3 broke the record for pre-orders with like 3.5 million or something.

Exactamente >.> 3.5 mill... Wasn't that a few months before launch? xD Plus I know a hell of a lot of people who got a 360 for halo 3 soooo ^^

[mattgame]

I know a few people at my job who went out and bought 360s' because of Halo 3. Now they want to know what all the hype is about.

[predatorprime]

I can promise you neither of those games will ever be as big as Halo. Halo 3 broke the record for pre-orders with like 3.5 million or something.

I realize that they won't beat the pre-order record, but over the long haul I think its possible that they may out sell Halo 3. Take into consideration that there are only about 10 million Gamecubes...and over 6 million copies of Smash Brothers sold. I'm not saying that I think that the 360 will be third I just think theres very little chance of it reclaiming its top spot back.

[mattgame]

I think the Wii is going to die down and the 360 is just gonna get better. There is very little quality 3rd party support for the Wii eventually that means all of the 3rd party great games will be found on the PS3 or the 360. If the game has online support then that means the 360 will win that batttle. Couple that with XboxLive arcade which is tremendous, and all of the other features on XboxLive and I think we may have a new console winner in 3 years. FtW

[l Maximus l]

I think the Wii is going to die down and the 360 is just gonna get better. There is very little quality 3rd party support for the Wii eventually that means all of the 3rd party great games will be found on the PS3 or the 360. If the game has online support then that means the 360 will win that batttle. Couple that with XboxLive arcade which is tremendous, and all of the other features on XboxLive and I think we may have a new console winner in 3 years. FtW

I have a friend that actually won a free Wii and he was acting like a dork and said "Dude, the bowling is so fun! My wife and I played all day and had a blast!" 2 week later, he hasn't touched it since that one day.

That's the problem with the Wii...the games are fun for a short amount of time...people get bored and then buy another game that they have fun with for a day or two and then get bored with it...then on to the next snore fest.

I think that Nintendo is smart by targeting families and kids, but, I don't know if they can keep up with the demand for boring games on their own. They need more 3rd party developers to make boring games for them at the same time... Besides, I think people are going to get tired of throwing their controllers through their nice shiny flat panel TVs.

[BROOKLYNSBATMAN]

I have a friend that actually won a free Wii and he was acting like a dork and said "Dude, the bowling is so fun! My wife and I played all day and had a blast!" 2 week later, he hasn't touched it since that one day.

That's the problem with the Wii...the games are fun for a short amount of time...people get bored and then buy another game that they have fun with for a day or two and then get bored with it...then on to the next snore fest.

I think that Nintendo is smart by targeting families and kids, but, I don't know if they can keep up with the demand for boring games on their own. They need more 3rd party developers to make boring games for them at the same time... Besides, I think people are going to get tired of throwing their controllers through their nice shiny flat panel TVs.

u know myself and other friends of mine have that same problem with guitar hero 2 . Is it just me or does'nt it became titious after u beat the game ... i dont have much fun with it after that... but yeah i agree i think the wii although a technological advance in gaming will die down i mean how many games do u need to shake ur hands too before u go u know this is boring..

[ShannonX]

well, technicall it was only about 1.5 million preorders (halo3) with about 4.5 million copies shipped out to retail. :)

[Shawn-XBA]

Microsoft is releasing a new core system later this month, I think its going to help considerably. I don't see the Xbox 360 being a distant 3rd in 2009. I think the Wii, which I love playing, will lose some steam once the initial novelty wears off. The Wii doesn't have the 3rd party developers that the Xbox 360 and PS3 have. I see Xbox 360 winning the console war by 2009, the Wii in 2nd place as they have a huge fan base for Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc. The PS3, I think is just to expensive for the casual gamer and will suffer because of it and be in 3rd place.

[mattgame]

That's what I said. No literally, that's what I said.:cool:

[l Maximus l]

Personally, I think on-line play is only going to become bigger and bigger. XBox Live is, technically speaking, the second largest telecommunications network in the country. Globally, I'm not sure where it stacks up.

Something tells me that Sony or Nintendo can't compete with that.

[predatorprime]

I think the big prob here is we're all look at this as gamers...
the Wii is not a gamers system. My wife plays it and she doesn't give a rats ass if games are online or not. Its not that I like the Wii more than the 360, which I don't, it's just that the 360 has a very finite group of people to sell too (being us). Once they have sold to the hardcore there is little to no pull for anyone else to buy one. Personally I think thats M$s fault on that one. They had a perfect title to start with in Viva Pinata, but they chose not to market the game, just the stupid cartoon. Its a shame too, because its easily my favorite game on the 360. You also have to realize that this is system sales, not game sales. 360 will out sell the Wii game wise cause no one buys any games for the thing. I own more games for my wii than everyone else I know with a Wii combined. Microsoft is better off that way anyways since they take a nice groin shot to the wallet every time a 360 sells. My prediction stands as it was which is Wii first because of the demographic of people its selling to, 360 a fairly close second (with in a couple million units), and PS3 a distant 3rd.

As a note, something that I forgot was that the Red Ring of Death is hurting the 360 PR A LOT. I have friends who love my 360 but refuse to buy one because its not reliable enough, but thats another arguement all together.

PS Before anyone mentions the 3 year warranty I would like to point out that the replacement 360 I got from my warranty is a pile o'crap. I'd go into more detail but I think it would take the fun out of my 360 all together at this point.

[mattgame]

I have three 360's and only one went down. The replacement has been flawless. I think some of these RRD cases are more isolated than the public and media would have us believe. Not that there is a problem but maybe not as widespread.Anothe version of the 360 called the Falcon has been made in response to the RRD's. This is supposed to eliminate most of the problems we had with the old one.

Having said that, I agree with the rest of your post. I bought one game for my Wii, RE4. I may get Metroid and SSB for my son but that's it.

[Shawn-XBA]

That's what I said. No literally, that's what I said.:cool:
lol, I just read your post. I should have just copied and pasted it :p

[Ainokeatoo]

widespread.Anothe version of the 360 called the Falcon has been made in response to the RRD's. This is supposed to eliminate most of the problems we had with the old one.

Oh please don't ****ing tell me it's going to be another more expensive version of the current 360 on the market... Also... I would like to say that 360 and wii will either be first or second while ps3 just floats out there at the end of the alphabet nowhere near first second or even third place.

Just so you didn't know...

I hate the Gaystation...

And it's *******ish community >.>

[l Maximus l]

I have three 360's and only one went down. The replacement has been flawless. I think some of these RRD cases are more isolated than the public and media would have us believe. Not that there is a problem but maybe not as widespread.Anothe version of the 360 called the Falcon has been made in response to the RRD's. This is supposed to eliminate most of the problems we had with the old one.

Having said that, I agree with the rest of your post. I bought one game for my Wii, RE4. I may get Metroid and SSB for my son but that's it.

Yeah, I have a launch 360 - flawless...never had a single problem.