Xbox Year 2 Projections

[X-Factor]

The Games of 2003!
I think it's safe to say that Xbox's first year on the market was a bit bland when it came to the games. It's nothing to be ashamed of, most consoles go through the year one drought as developers warm up to the machine, and the Box was no different. Yet Year two is looking like an absolute moment to moment explosion of gaming goodness. In a quick fashion let me show you Xbox 2003 lineup as it currently stands--Midtown Madness 3, Crimson Skies: HRTR, Toa Feng: TFOL, Star Wars: KOTOR, Project Gotham Racing 2, Fable, BC, Sudeki, Tork, Psychonauts, Counterstrike, True Fantasy Live Online, Kameo: Elements of Power, Panzer Dragoon Orta, Outrun 2, Ninja Gaiden, Banjo-Kazooie 3, DOA Xtreme Beach Volleyball, Breakdown, DOA: Code Cronos, The Unseen, Steel Battalion 2, Dino Crisis 3, Deus Ex 2: Invisible war, Conker's Other Bad Fur Day, Doom III, Perfect Dark Zero, WWE Raw 2, and of course Halo 2. Now that's a f#@king lineup, and these are just the games that we know of. Believe me; Microsoft has a whole lot of surprises for year 2 yet to be revealed...

The Secret Weapon
The HALO 2 Factor: While Xbox has a gargantuan number of games for 2003, perhaps there's only one that really matters, HALO 2. Every now and then a game comes along with such an unprecedented level of Hype that it is immortalized and uncomprehendable in the minds of gamers well before it's even released. HALO 2 seems destined to join the ranks of games like Zelda: Ocarina of Time, Metal Gear Solid, and Grand Theft Auto 3.

The XBOX Live Factor
Graphics and processing power can only be marketed so much before people stop caring, but Xbox Live could become a major selling point for Xbox during year two. If the MS boys play their hands right, Xbox Live could become the ultimate destination for hardcore gamers. Xbox Live is something totally unique to Microsoft's system the competition's online plans don't even come close! Yet Microsoft is going to have to show patience with Xbox Live as growth is most likely going to be slow, the number of Broadband users in the U.S. is still relatively low and as such the number of gamers with access to Xbox Live will be few! Gamers should certainly not worry about Xbox Live getting killed prematurely because of a low user base; like everything else MS does, Xbox Live is ready for the long run.

Japan First, Then the World
As of printing this article Xbox is now holding the second place trophy in America by about 800,000 units (over GameCube) and in Europe by a margin, and sales in both markets are rising. Yet in Japan Xbox continues to get pounded into the dust! After a full 8 months on the market Microsoft has only managed to move a dismal 300,000 units. While Japan is not the pinnacle of gaming that it once was, they are still a very important market; if Microsoft wants to have the Xbox be a true success than this problem will have to be mitigated.

Year 2 is looking a little better for Japanese gamers who've joined the green side, at least compared to year one! Games like N.U.D.E, True Fantasy Live Online, Dino Crisis 3, and of course Ninja Gaiden should go a long ways to spurring sales. Yet if Microsoft really wants to succeed in the Japanese market it's going to take more than a few isolated game releases. In all likelihood, sometime during 2003 Microsoft will purchase or partner with a major Japanese publisher (hmm...maybe SEGA). If Microsoft wants to survive, it's going to take something drastic! Japan is going to become a true test of just how bad Microsoft wants to dominate this market!

The Rare Factor
Not only has Rare's shifting allegiance punched a massive whole in the Gamecube's developer support but it has given Microsoft quite possibly it's most powerful ally yet! For a mere 375 million green backs, MS acquired 5 separate development houses and Rare's entire library of Franchises (Killer Instinct, Perfect Dark, Kameo, Conker, Banjo, etc). Rare has pledged that 5 Xbox games will be shipped within the next two years. So far the only games we know of are Kameo and Perfect Dark Zero yet just these two titles seem to be slowly shifting the course of this race.

A recent IGN report stated that one of the most wanted games for gamers who don't own an Xbox is none other than Perfect Dark Zero, a very good sign that when the game finally ships it's going to bring over a lot of Gamecube enthusiasts with it! The number of defectors is also only going to mount as more and more Rare games are released on Xbox!

Personally, Xbox is gonna edge the GameCube out in the U.S. and Europe in 2003 (hard to believe a year-one rookie lead in sales in 2 out of the 3 major markets over the infamous twenty-year veteran Nintendo) and start gaining ground on PS2 (games like Splinter Cell, Halo 2, and Project Gotham Racing 2 look absurdly better than anything on PS2). Sony has won this race, but Microsoft could very well breath down the neck of Sony in 2003.

Xbox is gonna shine in 2003 for sure...