Next gen consoles spark concern

**Knight** · 09-03-2003

By Alfred Hermida
BBC News Online technology editor

Sony is already planning a successor to the PS2
The next generation of consoles could shake up the games industry, with a game costing tens of millions of dollars to develop, say experts.
Making a title for the successors to the PlayStation 2, Xbox and GameCube could run into $20 or $30 million, game developers meeting in London were told.

But the price of a game in the shops is likely to stay the same.

It could mean many smaller software firms going bust or joining forces with other small companies.

Rising costs

Software companies have found the transition from one generation of gaming platform to another difficult, hitting sales and raising development costs

"We are very scared about the potential cost of PlayStation 3 games," Jez San, Chief Executive of Argonaut Games told the Games Developers Conference being held in London.

There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore. You won't make any money

Jez San, Argonaut Games
"Retail prices are not changing but the costs of development are increasing."

"This explains why the games industry is going through a consolidation this year. Consolidation is inevitable."

And he had an ominous prediction for the audience of game developers gathered at London's Earls Court conference centre.

"We have maybe 500 small development studios at the moment. We could have just 50 in two years' time."

"The market has grown up. There's no market for bedroom programmers anymore," said Mr San, who started off as one himself. "You won't make any money."

His comments were echoed by other industry figures who are preparing for the next generation of consoles to appear in the shops in two or three years' time.

"It is going to be a huge challenge dealing with the next generation of consoles," said David Lau-Kee, Chief Executive of Criterion Software which is behind titles like Burnout and Airblade.

Wanting more

The new consoles could have up to 1,000 times more processing power than current models and benefit from enhanced video and audio systems.

Gamers are expecting more from next gen consoles
"There are enormous technical challenges ahead with the new consoles," said Jez San of Argonaut. "And it is not just about content.

"Consumer expectations will be higher. They will want games that look and play better on the PS3."

It means the people making games are going to produce better and more advanced titles which are going to more time and money to develop.

"Games that take four or five years time now could take 10 years to develop," warned Ian Shaw, chief technology officer with games giant Electronic Arts.

He said the games industry had to become more efficient in the way it created games, looking at faster ways of turning an idea into a compelling interactive experience.

The Game Developers Conference Europe runs at London's Earls Court conference centre until Friday.

It is part of London Games Week, which brings together a range of industry and consumer events around the capital.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3185663.stm

**CarGuy** · 09-03-2003

This is what i always feared.. but they better not change prices

. I mean not every game has to be a Halo or Splinter Cell... I think one thing they should do is make games upgradeable like PC games. Instead of a sequel just keep adding fighters to fighting games, new quests, worlds and items to RPG's.... If the content was significant enough they could charge a small fee to download or they could sell a disc.

**Tim** · 09-03-2003

What a bunch of cry babies and winers. Consumers are spending billions of dollars on our industry and now they want better and more sophisticated games..Whaaaahhhh!

What a joke. I hope this guy gets a good scolding for making those comments...

**l Maximus l** · 09-03-2003

I'm somewhat puzzled by this article as well. With the amount of money that they earn from "A" titles, you'd think they would have enough resources.

If you ask me, this could be good news for us gamers. Why? Because we will likely see fewer games, however, we will also likely see the quality of games increase dramatically. I mean, what company in their right mind would spend millions of dollars on a crap ass game like Bloodwake

**Hugh_Jass** · 09-04-2003

The problem with big budget games is that they generally don't take a lot of risks. A-List titles are largely rehashes or sequels. Yes, you'll have innovation in graphics but new genres or less popular genres will simply not get the required funding.

**Duke** · 09-04-2003

Not only that, but games like the aforementioned Bloodwake have a very steady and dedicated fan base (myself not included, hated it.)

Variety is the spice of life. I think that smaller developers provide a very vital part of any industry. They are usually the ones to take risks. They know that can't compete with established items, so they look to find a new way.

It's akin to a high school social system. Look at the actors everyone loves in hollywood. I know I made fun of at least 2 people w/ movies that have come out in the last year. One of them being a cinderella (ugly in HS, unbelievably hot now). If there aren't creative outlets for the "ugly ducklings" then every thing remains the same.

**mattgame** · 09-04-2003

It's called overkill. Eventually, the gaming industry will dwindle down to someone monopolizing the industry and then taxing us up the wazoo for the system and the games. I thank you.

**smack_roscoe** · 09-04-2003

I dont buy this thinking. The price point has been established in the US with regards to consoles. While the Hardcore crowd will pay US$800 for the next Gen. gaming console(snicker), Mom & Dads just wont go for $400 toys. Nope, aint happening. US$75 games? Fugetaboutit. Not in this lifetime.

**LynxFX** · 09-04-2003

10 years to develope a game? Only if that game is Duke Nukem Forever.

Seriously, are they nuts? There's no way a company would fund a game being developed over 10 years. For one thing, they would miss out on the primetime of whatever console they were developing for as the next gen would most definately be out.

I think they are making excuses for why no one is buying their lackluster games. They are rehashes, eye candy with no substance, poor quality, buggy, bad controls, rushed or a bad idea.

I also don't think that as consoles and pc's get more powerful that it is going to create even more work for the game developers. It will reveal those that are lazy and take shortcuts. But if you can design a good graphics engine or license one that is already proven on the tech, then all your time can be in coding the gameplay, writing stories, doing designs. You don't have to reinvent the wheel everytime you set out to make a new game.

**thrAsher** · 09-04-2003

I'm all for bigger, better games, but I also like to see variety. This article doesn't bode well for variety, or for ingenuity, either. I feel that when games start costing in the tens of millions of dollars, studios are going to take fewer risks and stick to formulas that sell well. And with fewer studios putting out games, the console market could very likely feel the pinch from consumers.

**Knight** · 09-04-2003

Originally posted by Lynxfx-XBA
10 years to develope a game? Only if that game is Duke Nukem Forever.

That game will never make it to EB.

**Knight** · 09-04-2003

Originally posted by thrAsher
I'm all for bigger, better games, but I also like to see variety. This article doesn't bode well for variety, or for ingenuity, either. I feel that when games start costing in the tens of millions of dollars, studios are going to take fewer risks and stick to formulas that sell well. And with fewer studios putting out games, the console market could very likely feel the pinch from consumers.

What do you want to bet Homeworld2 cost 1-2million. And will sell a 1million copys in a year time. They should just stop making crapy games based on movies.

**mattgame** · 09-04-2003

They will find a way to make the games faster, and cheaper. This si the only way to stay in the consumers pockets consistently. If not the industry will fold like Glass Joe after a body blow, body blow.

**KboT** · 09-04-2003

I think they should really wait to release new consoles. They are rushing it, and the 10 years thing to develope a new game is crazy! By the time new games start to come for the next Console, another console will already be released!

I say stick with what we got for a few more year while they try and find easyer ways to make cheap, better consoles and games.

**DocHoliday78** · 09-04-2003

I agree with maximus. Gaming will be more quality and less quantity. Hopefully there will be no more kabuki warriors, lame spin offs of movies, and many more halo's. 10 Years for a game is abusrd, i cant imagine telling my son that he was born the year that the game he is playing started up.

**Cryogenic Pyro** · 09-05-2003

10 years for a game, huh? No wonder no one likes EA, they have no ****ing clue. Seriously, by myself, right now, if I had all the skills to code, write storylines, and do 3D modeling, I could have a game out in 4 to 5 years, and I do stuff with my life. I can't imagine taking over 3 years for a game, even with a three man company making it.

**BCan** · 09-06-2003

This line of thinking is a load of trollop. Considering Games, both PC and Consoles now outstrip revenue from movies, you can only expect it to get a larger slice of the pie.

No longer is the gaming market a small one, it is the largest revenue medium in the world. The sooner more companies take the chance to get exposure in everyones household, the better the market will be.

Whilst MS is in the console market, expect developers to have cheaper development cost, since they will always have their console closely linked to DirectX architecture.

**OC Noob** · 09-06-2003

He must be the boy who cried wolf.

With newer consoles game making gets easier. It was easier to make a PS1 game then a SNES, its easier to code for XBox then it is for PS1 and things will most likely keep going that way. The easier/cheaper it is to make games the more developers you attract. Nintendo learned that the hard way. Thats one of the things that makes the XBox so good, its easy to port PC games and easy to code for so we are going to get lots of titles based on those two things alone.

Even if a few developers dropped out, there are so many titles (90% of which are crappy) we probably won't even notice a difference.

The only thing I agree with is these guys probably can't make games out of their basement anymore, but thats to be expected from such a large industry.

**Dyslexic Chaos** · 09-07-2003

Exactly. When was the last time you saw a movie make alot of money from the basement? Blair Witch is probably the closest you will get. But I agree it will get easier if you have the technology. The thing is, they are thinking of making the games of tommorow on TODAYS technology with TODAYS prices. Of course it will cost that much NOW, but in the future, you will look at an Xbox game, like you do a PSX game now, and wonder how you could play that crap.